Honduras 2025: elections under institutional pressure and political tension

The national elections in Honduras, slated for November 30, 2025, are happening amidst a climate of political strain and scrutiny of institutions. The electoral scenario is characterized by the dominance of the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) over government bodies and an opposition struggling to form a cohesive alternative. Indications of democratic erosion and clashes between pivotal institutions, like the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces, create worries regarding the clarity and validity of the process.

The political landscape in Honduras is marked by the division within the opposition, as the National Party and the Liberal Party engage in discussions to establish a coalition. Nonetheless, disagreements on leadership roles and program outlines have hindered the creation of a strong partnership. The latest primary elections exposed organizational issues and witnessed low voter participation, which heightened skepticism regarding the electoral process and intensified critiques of institutional governance.

Regulation by institutions and conflicts during elections

The Nodos report observes that the democratic system in Honduras is under strain, with the dominant party holding onto power by way of institutional dominance. This scenario has led to potential outcomes such as the persistence of the established framework, a halt in institutional operations, or potentially a constitutional collapse. Frictions between the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the military, who manage election logistics, have sparked worries regarding the fairness and effectiveness of the proceedings. Moreover, the absence of electoral changes and continuing political divisions heighten the threat of disputes after elections.

Different sectors of civil society and the global community have urged the authorities to ensure an open and inclusive voting process, adhering to democratic principles to maintain the country’s political and social stability. The mix of a governing party with institutional power, a fragmented opposition, and a disputed electoral system suggests the potential for an extraordinary institutional crisis in Honduras.

Possible coalition strategies and the ruling party’s reactions

In response to the current situation, the Liberal and National parties have initiated formal discussions to investigate the possibility of forming an opposition alliance, with the goal of contesting the LIBRE Party in the forthcoming elections. In these discussions, they have considered strategies for electoral unity, the allocation of candidacies, and a shared platform emphasizing the protection of democracy, a market-driven economy, and adherence to the constitutional framework. The opposition parties assert that the administration of Xiomara Castro, along with her advisor Manuel Zelaya, has introduced measures aimed at centralizing power, such as utilizing the Public Ministry to act against critics, efforts to manipulate the CNE, and proposals for constitutional amendments.

If a coalition comes together, the two long-standing parties might represent more than half of the voters, based on recent surveys. Both social and corporate circles consider this partnership a promising option to curtail the ruling party’s advances. Meanwhile, the ruling party has minimized the significance of a potential opposition coalition, claiming it does not provide remedies for the nation. The 2025 elections are gearing up to be a plebiscite between continuing the reform initiative led by LIBRE and reverting to a republican, investment-friendly framework advocated by a consolidated opposition. The results will determine Honduras’s political and institutional path.